https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/policy-hub/2024/05/16/03--how-much-do-guarantees-and-bailouts-cost-government?item=0143f98d-d050-404d-8450-a5918853056d 0143f98d-d050-404d-8450-a5918853056d Thursday, 16 May 2024 8:0:0 EST Governments in advanced economies absorb a large and growing share of aggregate credit risk, and that share has grown over time. This Policy Hub article explores the cost of government guarantees and bailouts. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/policy-hub/2024/05/15/02--offshore-dollar-and-us-policy?item=3a6becee-00ae-44ab-a1f8-490301374b7f 3a6becee-00ae-44ab-a1f8-490301374b7f Wednesday, 15 May 2024 8:0:0 EST Dollar borrowing outside the United States has grown to be very large, and the Fed's lending through central bank swaps enables the Fed to backstop global dollar funding markets at times of severe strain. This Policy Hub article examines the offshore dollar and US monetary and financial stability policy. https://www.atlantafed.org/economy-matters/annual-report/2023?item=192a6088-ef55-4898-b7de-54cda833140d 192a6088-ef55-4898-b7de-54cda833140d Tuesday, 26 Mar 2024 15:57:0 EST The Atlanta Fed's 2023 Annual Report includes information on our leadership structure, financials, compliance, and commitment to transparency. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2024/03/25/04--inference-based-on-time-varying-svars-identified-w-time-restrictions?item=083ff53b-f74c-43d3-a8ed-812ae5db8102 083ff53b-f74c-43d3-a8ed-812ae5db8102 Monday, 25 Mar 2024 10:0:0 EST Jonas E. Arias, Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, Minchul Shin, and Daniel F. WaggonerWorking Paper 2024-4March 2024 The authors use a new approach for Bayesian inference to analyze the role played by monetary policy during the latest inflation surge. The methodology is innovative to the literature and allows the separation of inference from identification. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2024/02/14/03--declining-responsiveness-at-establishment-level--sources-and-productivity-implications?item=d01a0d10-da73-4caa-982c-47874c9ca794 d01a0d10-da73-4caa-982c-47874c9ca794 Wednesday, 14 Feb 2024 10:0:0 EST Russell Cooper, John Haltiwanger, and Jonathan WillisWorking Paper 2024-3February 2024 To assess the main contributors to the well-documented decline in dynamism among US establishments, the authors construct a plant-level dynamic optimization framework. They find that increasing costs of adjusting labor is the primary contributor to the observed decline in plant-level responsiveness of employment to profitable opportunities. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2024/02/05/02--skilled-immigration-frictions-as-barrier-for-young-firms?item=5c0e3fcd-6ab9-4912-85be-ebab438b6e27 5c0e3fcd-6ab9-4912-85be-ebab438b6e27 Monday, 5 Feb 2024 10:0:0 EST Federico S. Mandelman, Mishita Mehra, and Hewei ShenWorking Paper 2024-2February 2024 The authors explore the impact of skilled immigration policy frictions on technology-intensive firms, showing that such frictions directly influence young firm dynamics in technology-intensive sectors by affecting firm survival. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2024/01/16/01--slowdown-in-immigration-labor-shortages-and-declining-skill-premia?item=c5c5b305-ba4e-4135-8ca7-e5cea28a30a3 c5c5b305-ba4e-4135-8ca7-e5cea28a30a3 Tuesday, 16 Jan 2024 10:0:0 EST Federico S. Mandelman, Yang Yu, Francesco Zanetti, and Andrei ZlateWorking Paper 2024-1January 2024 The authors document a slowdown in low-skilled immigration that started during the Great Recession, and they link it to labor shortages in service-related jobs and a decline in the college premium. This decline reduced the incentive for education and reduced labor productivity over time. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/policy-hub/2024/01/16/01--is-last-mile-more-arduous?item=be03736b-f162-42dd-9d9a-9319a650435b be03736b-f162-42dd-9d9a-9319a650435b Tuesday, 16 Jan 2024 8:0:0 EST Although inflation has been moving toward the Fed’s 2 percent annual target, some believe that covering the last mile to meet the target will be arduous and require extraordinary policy moves. This Policy Hub article examines that belief and finds it unsupported by the evidence. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/policy-hub/2023/11/09/08--when-tight-is-too-tight--federal-reserves-response-to-post-world-war-ii-spike-in-inflation?item=668c9ade-6589-4724-a715-5fa069a6e727 668c9ade-6589-4724-a715-5fa069a6e727 Thursday, 9 Nov 2023 3:30:0 EST Using the lessons learned following the Federal Reserve's tightening actions in response to the post-World War II spike in inflation, the authors of this Policy Hub article draw parallels to today's postpandemic economy. They also analyze the effect of the current fiscal policy stance on "neutral" interest rates. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/11/08/17--critical-review-of-common-ownership-literature?item=07b8e460-010a-46f1-9663-adbd59626136 07b8e460-010a-46f1-9663-adbd59626136 Wednesday, 8 Nov 2023 10:0:0 EST Kristopher Gerardi, Michelle Lowry, and Carola SchenoneWorking Paper 2023-17November 2023The authors conduct a critical survey of the common ownership literature, focusing on measurement issues, identification challenges, and plausible causal mechanisms. They conclude that little credible evidence exists that common ownership exerts anticompetitive effects, although more research is warranted. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/policy-hub/2023/11/03/07--local-origins-of-business-formation?item=dd09d9f7-64b4-48e7-b624-6a7c4fd0756a dd09d9f7-64b4-48e7-b624-6a7c4fd0756a Friday, 3 Nov 2023 3:30:0 EST Across the United States, the per capita rate of business startups varies widely. From the creation of an idea to forming a startup and hiring employees, what factors are at work? This Policy Hub article explores variables behind business formations. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/10/16/16--forward-guidance-and-its-effectiveness--macro-finance-shadow-framework?item=46fad734-32a1-4087-ac74-169a6d5a1eef 46fad734-32a1-4087-ac74-169a6d5a1eef Monday, 16 Oct 2023 10:0:0 EST Junko Koeda and Bin WeiWorking Paper 2023-16October 2023The authors examine central bank forward guidance, which provides monetary policy communication. They find that outcome-based forward guidance is indeed effective and has significant monetary-easing effects on the real economy. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/policy-hub/2023/10/02/06--the-fed-and-its-shadow--historical-view?item=39142c9a-36ba-4614-9c04-c2a9897dcf6f 39142c9a-36ba-4614-9c04-c2a9897dcf6f Monday, 2 Oct 2023 3:30:0 EST Central bank policies have traditionally incorporated a discretionary, or active, component and a passive component. This Policy Hub article examines the passive component of monetary policy, which has emerged from the shadows and become relevant for Federal Reserve policy today. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/09/28/15--expansion-of-varieties-in-new-age-of-advertising?item=da4e867a-07da-416a-8c17-635066d57451 da4e867a-07da-416a-8c17-635066d57451 Thursday, 28 Sep 2023 10:0:0 EST Salomé Baslandze, Jeremy Greenwood, Ricardo Marto, and Sara MoreiraWorking Paper 2023-15September 2023The authors study how the rise in digital advertising that facilitated consumer targeting by firms led to the increase in product varieties and affected economic welfare. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/09/28/14--why-does-yield-curve-predict-gdp-growth--role-of-banks?item=1d064aca-5bbf-4f8c-a1a9-d5c801ac5940 1d064aca-5bbf-4f8c-a1a9-d5c801ac5940 Thursday, 28 Sep 2023 9:30:0 EST Camelia Minoiu, Andres Schneider, and Min WeiWorking Paper 2023-14September 2023Examining the effect of the slope of the yield curve on economic activity through bank lending, the authors show that a steeper yield curve associated with higher term premiums boosts bank profits and the supply of bank loans.