Atlanta Fed Working Papers
2021
2021-19
The S-Curve: Understanding the Dynamics of Worldwide Financial Liberalization
Nan Li, Chris Papageorgiou, Tong Xu, and Tao Zha
July 2021
Abstract | Full text
2020
2020-19
Stock-Bond Return Correlation, Bond Risk Premium Fundamentals, and Fiscal-Monetary Policy Regime
Erica X.N. Li, Tao Zha, Ji Zhang, and Hao Zhou
October 2020
Abstract | Full text
2020-16a
Monetary Stimulus amid the Infrastructure Investment Spree: Evidence from China's Loan-Level Data
Kaiji Chen, Haoyu Gao, Patrick Higgins, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
August 2020 (Revised July 2022)
Abstract | Full text
2020-15
Four Stylized Facts about COVID-19
Andrew G. Atkeson, Karen Kopecky, and Tao Zha
August 2020
Abstract | Full text
2020-7
Discount Shock, Price-Rent Dynamics, and the Business Cycle
Jianjun Miao, Pengfei Wang, and Tao Zha
May 2020
Abstract | Full text
2020-6
Cyclical Lending Standards: A Structural Analysis
Kaiji Chen, Patrick Higgins, and Tao Zha
May 2020
Abstract | Full text
2019
2019-4
A Theory of Housing Demand Shocks
Zheng Liu, Pengfei Wang, and Tao Zha
March 2019
Abstract | Full text (902 KB)
2018-12
Macroeconomic Effects of China's Financial Policies
Kaiji Chen and Tao Zha
November 2018
Abstract | Full text (1,018 KB)
2016-9a
Impacts of Monetary Stimulus on Credit Allocation and Macroeconomy: Evidence from China
Kaiji Chen, Patrick Higgins, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
September 2016 (Revised October 2017)
Abstract | Full text (518 KB)
2016-7
Forecasting China's Economic Growth and Inflation
Patrick Higgins, Tao Zha, and Karen Zhong
July 2016
Abstract | Full text (407 KB)
2016-1
What We Learn from China's Rising Shadow Banking: Exploring the Nexus of Monetary Tightening and Banks' Role in Entrusted Lending
Kaiji Chen, Jue Ren, and Tao Zha
January 2016
Abstract | Full text (544 KB)
2015-8
Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Bank Intermediation Shocks: A Structural Approach
Kaiji Chen and Tao Zha
August 2015
Abstract | Full text (966 KB)
2015-5
Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy
Chun Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
June 2015
Abstract | Full text (649 KB)
2014-21
The Dynamic Striated Metropolis-Hastings Sampler for High-Dimensional Models
Daniel F. Waggoner, Hongwei Wu, and Tao Zha
November 2014
Abstract | Full text (957 KB)
2014-16
Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching DSGE Models
Andrew Foerster, Juan Rubio-Ramirez, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
August 2014
Abstract | Full text (489 KB)
2014-15
Liquidity Premia, Price-Rent Dynamics, and Business Cycles
Jianjun Miao, Pengfei Wang, and Tao Zha
August 2014
Abstract | Full text (745 KB)
2013-6
Land Prices and Unemployment
Zheng Liu, Jianjun Miao, and Tao Zha
September 2013
Abstract | Full text (628 KB)
2013-1
Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching DSGE Models
Andrew Foerster, Juan Rubio-Ramirez, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
March 2013
Abstract | Full text (539 KB)
2011-11
Land-Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
Zheng Liu, Pengfei Wang, and Tao Zha
July 2011
Abstract | Full text (411KB)
2010-18a
Confronting Model Misspecification in Macroeconomics
Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao Zha
(Revised) February 2012
Abstract | Full text (418 KB)
2010-1
Do Credit Constraints Amplify Macroeconomic Fluctuations?
Zheng Liu, Pengfei Wang, and Tao Zha
February 2010
Abstract | Full text (416 KB)
2009-5
Understanding Markov-Switching Rational Expectations Models
Roger E.A. Farmer, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
March 2009
Abstract | Full text (668 KB)
2009-3a
Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Regime-Switching DSGE Approach
Zheng Liu, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
(Revised) October 2010
Abstract | Full text (755 KB)
2008-23a
Minimal State Variable Solutions to Markov-Switching Rational Expectations Models
Roger E.A. Farmer, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
(Revised) September 2010
Abstract | Full text (244 KB)
2008-20
Learning, Adaptive Expectations, and Technology Shocks
Kevin X.D. Huang, Zheng Liu, and Tao Zha
September 2008
Abstract | Full text (602 KB)
2008-19
Generalizing the Taylor Principle: Comment
Roger E.A. Farmer, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
September 2008
Abstract | Full text (228 KB)
2008-18
Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory of Identification and Algorithms for Inference
Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
September 2008
Abstract | Full text (548 KB)
2007-23
Asymmetric Expectation Effects of Regime Shifts and the Great Moderation
Zheng Liu, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
October 2007
Abstract | Full text (768 KB)
2007-12
Understanding the New Keynesian Model When Monetary Policy Switches Regimes
Roger E.A. Farmer, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
July 2007
Abstract | Full text (477 KB)
2006-22
Methods for Inference in Large Multiple-Equation Markov-Switching Models
Christopher A. Sims, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
November 2006
Abstract | Full text (310 KB)
2006-20
The Conquest of South American Inflation
Thomas Sargent, Noah Williams, and Tao Zha
November 2006
Abstract | Full text (1.03 MB)
2006-19a
Indeterminacy in a Forward-Looking Regime-Switching Model
Roger E.A. Farmer, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
(Revised) September 2007
Abstract | Full text (548 KB)
2006-3
Transparency, Expectations, and Forecasts
Andrew Bauer, Robert A. Eisenbeis, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
April 2006
Abstract | Full text (420 KB)
2005-27
Markov-Switching Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory and Application
Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramírez, Daniel Waggoner, and Tao Zha
December 2005
Abstract | Full text (472 KB)
2004-22
Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation
Thomas Sargent, Noah Williams, and Tao Zha
September 2004
Abstract | Full text (1 MB)
2004-15
MCMC Method for Markov Mixture Simultaneous-Equation Models: A Note
Christopher A. Sims and Tao Zha
June 2004
Abstract | Full text (209 KB)
2004-14
Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?
Christopher A. Sims and Tao Zha
June 2004
Abstract | Full text (368 KB)
2004-13
Normalization in Econometrics
James D. Hamilton, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
June 2004
Abstract | Full text (986 KB)
2002-19
Modest Policy Interventions
Eric M. Leeper and Tao Zha
November 2002
Abstract | Full text (396 KB)
2002-8a
Evaluating Wall Street Journal Survey Forecasters: A Multivariate Approach
Robert Eisenbeis, Daniel Waggoner, and Tao Zha
July 2002
Abstract | Full text (116 KB)
2000-19
Assessing Simple Policy Rules: A View from a Complete Macro Model
Eric M. Leeper and Tao Zha
October 2000
Abstract | Full text (388 KB)
2000-8
Likelihood-Preserving Normalization in Multiple Equation Models
Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao Zha
June 2000
Abstract | Full text (202 KB)
2000-3
A Gibbs Simulator for Restricted VAR Models
Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao Zha
March 2000
Abstract | Full text (383 KB)
99-22
Modest Policy Interventions
Eric M. Leeper and Tao Zha
December 1999
Abstract | Full text (313 KB)
99-21
Quantifying the Half-Life of Deviations from PPP: The Role of Economic Priors
Lutz Kilian and Tao Zha
December 1999
Abstract | Full text (128 KB)
98-22
Conditional Forecasts in Dynamic Multivariate Models
Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao Zha
December 1998
Abstract | Full text (198 KB)
98-12
Does Monetary Policy Generate Recessions?
Christopher A. Sims and Tao A. Zha
July 1998
Abstract | Full text (286 KB)
97-11
Normalization, Probability Distribution, and Impulse Responses
Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao Zha
November 1997
Abstract | Full text (131 KB)
97-7
Trends in Velocity and Policy Expectations
David B. Gordon, Eric M. Leeper, and Tao Zha
November 1997
Abstract | Full text (551 KB)
96-13
Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models
Christopher A. Sims and Tao Zha
October 1996
Abstract | Full text (534 KB)
96-8
Identification, Vector Autoregression, and Block Recursion
Tao Zha
August 1996
Abstract | Full text (623 KB)
95-8
Bankruptcy Law Capital Allocation and Aggregate Effects: A Dynamic Heterogeneous Agent Model with Incomplete Markets
Tao Zha
October 1995
Abstract | Full text (600 KB)
95-7
Identifying Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy Under Flexible Exchange Rates
David O. Cushman and Tao Zha
October 1995
Abstract | Full text (972 KB)
95-6
Error Bands for Impulse Responses
Christopher A. Sims and Tao Zha
September 1995
Abstract | Full text (1.28 MB)