Real GDP Growth Performance and Outlook, Q1 2007

First Quarter 2007
Updated Forecast: Real GDP Growth Performance and Outlook

Estimates for regional real GDP growth for 2006 were revised up from the fourth quarter by 0.2 percentage points to 5.1 percent. Upward revisions to Argentina, Colombia, Peru, and Venezuela were partially offset by downward revisions to estimates for Brazil and Chile. For 2007, the real GDP forecast was revised up 0.1 percentage point to 4.3 percent. Upward revisions for Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia were countered by downward revisions for Chile and Venezuela. Initial forecasts for 2008 suggest some moderation of growth ahead, especially in Argentina and Venezuela, but the 4.1 percent forecast is still quite positive. It is important to note that Brazil's 2000–06 GDP figures were revised significantly upward in late March, and the forecasts in this table do not yet reflect these revisions.

Real GDP Growth Performance and Outlook
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Argentina –4.4 –10.9 8.8 9.0 9.2 8.8 7.2 5.3
Bolivia 1.7 2.4 2.9 3.9 4.1 4.5 3.9 4.3
Brazil 1.3 1.9 0.5 4.9 2.3 2.9 3.6 3.7
Chile 3.4 2.2 3.9 6.2 6.3 4.2 5.3 5.1
Colombia 1.5 1.9 3.9 4.8

5.1

6.3 5.0 4.6
Costa Rica 1.1 2.9 6.4 4.1 5.9 7.9 4.6 4.3
Cuba 3.0 1.5 2.9 4.3 9.5 9.5 8.4 5.7
Dom. Republic 4.0 4.5 –1.9 2.0 9.3 10.7 5.5 4.6
Ecuador 5.3 4.2 3.6 7.9 4.7 4.8 3.3 3.1
El Salvador 1.7 2.3 2.3 1.8 2.8 4.2 3.3 2.6
Guatemala 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.7 3.2 4.6 4.0 4.1
Honduras 2.6 2.7 3.5 4.6 4.2 5.2 4.2 4.0
Jamaica 1.5 1.1 2.3 0.9 1.4 2.7 3.1 3.0
Mexico 0.0 0.8 1.4 4.2 3.0 4.8 3.5 3.9
Nicaragua 3.0 0.8 2.3 5.1 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.4
Panama 0.6 2.2 4.2 7.6 6.4 8.1 6.4 6.5
Paraguay 2.1 0.0 3.8 4.1 2.9 4.0 3.6 3.9
Peru 0.2 5.2 3.9 5.2 6.4 8.0 6.3 5.7
Uruguay –3.4 –11.0 2.2 11.8 6.6 6.4 4.5 4.2
Venezuela 3.4 –8.9 –7.7 17.9 9.3 10.6 5.5 3.8
Totals 0.3 0.2 1.7 5.7 4.2 5.1 4.3 4.1

Source: International Monetary Fund, Consensus Economics, Latin Focus, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Annual percent change

The data presented here represent the average of available forecasts. Individual country forecasts are weighted by GDP to produce the average for the region.